The Stock Market Doesn’t Have to Make Sense: Apple Edition

by | Sep 23, 2021 | Blog, Videos

With the release of Apple’s new iPhone 13, we wanted to take this opportunity to remind folks that the stock market doesn’t always do what we think it should.

In this week’s video, Casey highlights how investor’s expectations can often mislead them.

Paying attention to the news and which direction the stock market is moving is important. But paying attention and making investing decisions are two VERY DIFFERENT THINGS.

Show Notes

AAII Sentiment Survey Week Ending in 9/15/2021

https://tpmullooly.wistia.com/medias/abuj93vtag?embedType=async&videoFoam=true&videoWidth=640

The Stock Market Doesn’t Have to Make Sense: Apple Edition – Full Transcript

**For a downloadable PDF version of this transcript, click here!**

Casey Mullooly: Episode 264 is another installment of why the stock market doesn’t always make sense.

Casey Mullooly: Welcome back to the Mullooly Asset Show. It’s me again, Casey Mullooly back for episode 264. Thanks for tuning in. Earlier this week, Apple unveiled their new iPhone 13, along with some other product updates. They detailed what the new phone is going to have. I think a longer battery and a better sharper camera. You know what to expect from these guys now.

Casey Mullooly: One would think, new iPhone, probably going to cost a lot of money. Everyone has iPhones. That’s got to be good for Apple’s stock price, right? Well, on the day they were down a little bit under 1%.

If you look back, dating back to the stone age basically, all the way back in 2008, when Apple debuted the iPhone 3, when it was basically just a brick, Apple’s stock price has fallen 11 of the 15 times in which they debuted a new iPhone.

Quite the head-scratcher, right?. It doesn’t always have to make sense. But when you look back, what has Apple’s stock price done since 2008? I don’t even have to have the numbers in front of me. Everyone knows what it’s done. It’s basically common knowledge at this point.

Casey Mullooly: Another example of why it doesn’t always have to make sense is the AAII Sentiment Survey, which measures which direction people think the stock market is going to go. Next is the most bearish it’s been since October of last year.

It’s the least bullish it’s been since June of 2020. It’s seems consensus of what the stock market’s going to do next, right? We talked about on a recent podcast how this survey has kind of become a contrarian indicator of sorts.

Casey Mullooly: Look, we’re not putting too much stock in what’s going to happen next with Apple or what people are predicting the next move in the stock market is going to be, but we’ve learned over time, certainly I’ve learned it over my career so far, that just when you think the market is going to do one thing, it’s surprises you and does something completely unexpected. That’s just what it does.

Casey Mullooly: We’re not saying that the news isn’t important and that company updates aren’t important and that what people think about the stock market isn’t important; it is. We’re plugged into all of it.

We pay attention to it. We stay on top of it. It’s a big area of concern for us. But staying plugged in and acting and making investment decisions based on the latest headlines and the latest news is they’re two completely different things. You can pay attention to things without acting on it. That is certainly possible and might be a good idea. That’s the message for episode 264, market doesn’t always make sense. We’ll see you on 265.

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