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Interest Rates, Washington, The Market: Your Cheat Sheet

by | Sep 23, 2014 | Asset Management, Stock Market Comments

I’ve whipped up a cheat sheet for you regarding Interest Rates, Washington, The Market.
Print them out and bring them to your next party!

Interest Rates:

  1. Janet Yellen has given speeches about NOT wanting to raise rates — as far back as 2009, when she was a Fed Governor in San Francisco. Look it up, Yellen is afraid of a re-run of 1937. Yes, someday, rates WILL rise. But rates may rise a lot SLOWER than CNBC will lead you to believe.
  2. As I’ve written before, Bernanke and Yellen have been the MOST transparent Fed Chairs, ever. Just listen to what they say — don’t let Bloomberg, CNBC, or anyone else spin it for you. They are the dope!
  3. Europe is in a RECESSION, and openly worry about deflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) is chucking around the idea of Quantitative Easing. Only five YEARS after we did it! All that will help keep rates low around the globe for a long time.
  4. Also, the Euro is weak, the dollar strong. It’s a seesaw: when the dollar is UP, the Euro is DOWN. A strong dollar is really bad for Gold — and anything else commodity related.

Washington:

  1. The president has instructed the Treasury to change the rules, to stop businesses from seeking lower tax rates overseas. I don’t know if what has been suggested is even legal, but who am I to judge?
  2. When you and I were growing up, playing stickball in the street, and suddenly the other team tried to change the rules, what did we do?
  3. Now, if corporations have to stay in the US and pay more taxes, that will likely slow down the economy. And it will probably slow down job growth. Which will keep pressure on the Fed to keep rates low, even longer. Mmmm, K.

The Market:

  1. Most major indices just made new highs several times over the summer. I know I’ve only been in the business for thirty years, but I cannot recall seeing the stock market fall apart a day, a week, or even a month after making new highs. Just saying.
  2. There is a LOT to like about this market, if everyone would stop micro-managing and wringing their hands. For decades, we’ve prayed and begged for a period of time when interest rates are low, when inflation has vanished and corporate profits are growing. Hellooooooo, here we are.
  3. Our long term charts are showing green lights. Short term indicators are really sloppy. This backdrop tells me when we get pull-backs, they will be good opportunities.
  4. Bonus point: Every time the president has a press conference or makes a speech on TV, the market drops like a rock that day. Guess who is talking later today?

There you have it — a quick and easy cheat sheet for today on Interest Rates, Washington, The Market.