Option Expiration… Irrelevant?

by | Dec 25, 2007 | Asset Management

It appears that nearly everything written or said on Wall Street has an agenda behind it.

This is just a casual observation I’ve made over the past few months. It seems that, in the last few months, the clients that happen to call me on an option expiration day…will often point out some “news” or “event” that the “talking heads” on TV are talking about the reason WHY the market is up or down on that particular day. But little or NO mention of option expiration!

What’s up with that? Option Expiration is the third Friday each month. This past Friday, December 21, 2007, was the most recent expiration day, and the Dow was up 205 points.

So, here’s my very un-scientific experiment…done (in fact), on the back of an envelope!

Expiration Friday & the Dow

January +2 points

February +2 points

March -50

April +153 points

May +80

June +86

July -149

August +234

Sept +54

October -366

November +60

December +205

The two “market” stories on Friday December 21 were earnings for RIMM and the possibility Merrill may get a bailout. Neither stocks are in the Dow…but yet, THOSE two stories are the reasons given in some corners to explain why the Dow was up yesterday. Oh, and a “Santa Claus” rally?

Is it just me? It seems like anyone watching the financial news channels should be skeptical of the information given out.

I hope our readers have a great holiday season.

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