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Mullooly Asset Management, Inc

Mullooly Asset Management

Fiduciary Fee-Only Financial Planner | Investment Advisor in Wall, NJ

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why we arent in the prediction business

Why We Aren’t in the Prediction Business

January 30, 2015 by Brendan Mullooly, CFP®

Earlier this week we were supposed to have a storm of historic proportions. Here in Monmouth County, NJ the experts were calling for 20-24 inches of snow. People flooded the grocery stores for milk, bread and other essentials.

As you’re likely well aware, the meteorologist predictions didn’t come to fruition. We got about 8 inches of snow. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but not the historic storm that was expected.

why we arent in the prediction business

The problem with predictions is that they rarely come true. However, people have an infatuation with them anyway. Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal recently wrote:

“Humans don’t want accuracy; they want reassurance…admitting that the future is unknowable is just too frightening.”

This is why we aren’t in the prediction business at Mullooly Asset Management. Do we wish that we could predict what the market will do in the future? You bet. Unfortunately, we can’t do that and neither can anybody else.

Financial pundits and other advisors will continue making market predictions forever. They haven’t stopped yet, so why would they now? Their predictions might make investors feel warm and fuzzy inside because we all crave certainty. This creates a dangerous false sense of security. Making financial plans based on averages, extrapolations, and predictions is not something we do at Mullooly Asset Management.

We use point and figure charts to tell us what’s happening right now. It’s kind of like looking out the window to find out what the weather’s doing today instead of banking on what the 5 day forecast predicted.

Sources:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-learned-from-the-year-of-surprise-1419957058

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/01/15_best_memes_from_the_blizzardof2015_that_wasnt.html

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Filed Under: Asset Management Tagged With: stock market

About Brendan Mullooly, CFP®

Brendan Mullooly is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™professional with Mullooly Asset Management, Inc.

1971 State Route 34, Suite 102
Wall Township, NJ 07719

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The information on this website and blog do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. None of the content contained in this website should be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.

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