Do you get your news — your investment ideas — from the news? The media — meaning, newspapers and magazines and financial channels all report what HAS happened. And then they try to — painfully — predict what WILL happen in the future. Look, the “predicting” business is a really bad business to be in.… [Read More] Stock Market Predictions : A Risky Business To Be In
OK, in just the last few days, the indicators I rely on to manage your money flipped from defense to offense. This means we ought to be looking to put money to work. But before you jump in the pool, let’s examine some facts: The bullish percent (the primary indicator of RISK in the market)… [Read More] Stock Market Whipsaw II
Indicators turn positive. Here’s the deal: if you’re aggressive, it’s time to start dipping a toe back in the water. Often, what starts out as a short term thing turns into a long term event (kind of like moving from dating to marriage, right?). But beware, we may have to un-do everything — in short… [Read More] Stock Market Whipsaw
I’m not an economist (thank goodness!), but it’s just my opinion that episodes like what happened in 1998 (and even in 2001 and in 2002) — when the Fed stepped in and changed interest rates — were more situations of market “liquidity” issues. What’s happening now seems to be more an issue of “solvency” —… [Read More] Investing Money: The Indicators Will Decide
Market bottom? Probably not. But the Federal Reserve is awake. The Fed stepped in a week ago, and injected liquidity in the financial system. But wait: they didn’t buy Treasury Bills (like they often do). They bought mortgage-backed securities. Weird. Look, the Fed made “emergency moves” in the midst of a currency crisis and the… [Read More] Market Bottom?
On Friday, the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate by a 1/2 pt. They cut the discount rate — NOT the Fed Funds rate. Understand, the discount rate is the rate banks and brokers are charged to borrow from the Fed. This doesn’t change rates you and I are charged. The Fed believes the “pressure”… [Read More] How Does the Discount Rate Being Cut Effect Investors?